Against the backdrop of global warming, extreme climate events are becoming increasingly frequent, and wildfires have emerged as a key threat to ecosystem security and biodiversity. However, existing research has focused primarily on long‑term habitat degradation caused by climate change, while a systematic and comprehensive assessment of "acute disturbances"—particularly the long‑term impacts of climate‑driven wildfires on species extinction risk—remains lacking.

Addressing this gap, a team led by Academician Chen Deliang from the Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, in collaboration with experts from Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom, systematically assessed the impact of increased wildfire activity on species survival risk under climate change at the global scale. The study reveals significant regional and interspecific inequalities in future wildfire exposure risk, providing a crucial scientific basis for global biodiversity conservation and climate risk governance.

The study integrated outputs from 13 CMIP6 climate models, combined with a machine learning model (LightGBM), to project changes in burned area over the 21st century. Using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System, the study assessed changes in fire season length and systematically analyzed wildfire risks for 9,592 terrestrial species classified by the IUCN as threatened by increased fire activity. The assessment was extended to a dataset of 41,543 terrestrial species, including both fire‑threatened and non‑threatened species, constructing the first global assessment framework for species' wildfire exposure risk based on future increases in burned area and fire season length.

The study shows that under a medium emission scenario (SSP2‑4.5), by the end of the 21st century, global burned area will increase by approximately 9.3%, and global fire season length will extend by 22.8%. Of the fire‑threatened species, 83.9% will face higher wildfire exposure risk, with approximately 40% of South American species experiencing burned area exposure increases exceeding 50%.

The study indicates that high‑latitude regions show the most significant increasing trends, with fire season length doubling in some areas. This means that cold ecosystems that have historically experienced few fires will face new wildfire threats in the future. In contrast, burned area is projected to decline in parts of Africa, demonstrating pronounced spatial asymmetry. These regional differences highlight the complexity of climate change impacts.

The study further finds that species with smaller distribution ranges tend to experience greater increases in wildfire exposure. The most severely affected top 1% of species (96 species) are concentrated in South America, South Asia, and Australia, with Endangered (EN) and Vulnerable (VU) species significantly overrepresented among them. Narrow‑range species in South America, particularly amphibians, face particularly acute future wildfire risks. These results suggest that climate‑induced increases in wildfire activity may further exacerbate extinction risks for already vulnerable species.

Figure 1: Changes in burned area exposure risk for species of different threat categories by the end of the 21st century under SSP2‑4.5 (a–e); (f–i) Changes in burned area exposure risk for species in hotspot regions; (j) Relationship between species range size and changes in burned area exposure risk.

The study also assessed "avoidable risk" under different emission pathways. Compared to a high‑emission scenario (SSP5‑8.5), the medium‑emission pathway (SSP2‑4.5) could reduce the increase in global species burned area exposure by 63.4%. Species in New Zealand, South America, and high‑latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere would gain the most from emission reductions, with high‑latitude species being particularly sensitive to emission pathways. The study points out that strengthening global climate mitigation actions not only helps control warming but also significantly reduces the future impact of wildfires on biodiversity.

The study emphasizes that future wildfire risk will expand toward high latitudes; traditional species assessment frameworks based on current threats may underestimate future risks; there is an urgent need to develop regionalized, species‑targeted adaptation and conservation strategies; and it is crucial to incorporate climate‑driven "acute disturbances," including wildfires, into conservation planning, rather than focusing only on "chronic disturbances" such as habitat degradation caused by gradual climate change.

This research provides a new scientific perspective for understanding the complex feedback mechanisms between climate change and biodiversity, and offers quantitative evidence for international climate governance and ecological conservation policies. The findings, titled "Wildfire risk for species under climate change," were recently published in Nature Climate Change. Dr. Yang Xiaoye from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, is the first author, and Academician Chen Deliang from the Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, is the corresponding author.

Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02600-5

Paper citation: Yang X., Urban M.C., Su B., Zhong Z., Wu C., Chen D. (2026). Wildfire Risk for Species under Climate Change. Nature Climate Change.